Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section: Ensemble Predictive Modeling

Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about ensemble predictive modeling.  The most accurate predictive models are not any single predictive model; they are ensembles of different models.  This discussion explores what types of ensembles are common, and some of the theory that explains their surprising power.  Understanding some of this theory can help you identify problems or individual models that might benefit most from ensembling.


Investment Section Chair, Jeff Passmore, FSA, EA, FCA and Vice-Chair Kelly Featherstone, FSA, ACIA discuss the council strategic plan to double the value of Investment Section membership for the next five years.

Direct download: Investment_Podcaast_-_Double_for_Five_Initiative.mp3
Category:Investment & Risk -- posted at: 2:59pm CDT

Joe Slater FSA, MAAA talks about how under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), all groups with 50 or less employees will eventually be subject to the ACA’s modified community rating rules. While some groups will see lower premiums than they would have without the ACA, others will see significant premium increases. Though self-funding has historically only been a realistic option for groups with at least a few hundred employees, the premium disruption and potential loss of business caused by the ACA has incentivized insurance carriers and third party administrators to develop self-funded product offerings for small groups. These products are commonly referred to as Level Funding products.

Direct download: Health_Podcast_-_Level_Funding_with_Joe_Slater.mp3
Category:Health -- posted at: 5:11pm CDT

Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section: Decision Trees

Listen in as Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, interviews Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA about decision trees.  Decision trees are an important class of predictive models that are not often covered in traditional statistics classes.  Although it is becoming more rare to use a single decision tree, they are an important building block in at least two of the most prevalent ensemble learning methods in use today.  This discussion tries to lay the groundwork so the next sessions can focus on RandomForests and Gradient Boosting Machines.


Dave Petta, FSA, MAAA and Karen Shelton, FSA, MAA discuss their article on Private Exchanges published in the May 2015 issue of HealthWatch  Listen as they describe the tenets of Private Exchanges, how they differ from Public exchanges and their current outlook.

Direct download: Health_Podcast_with_D_Dillon_K_Shelrton_and_D_Petta.mp3
Category:Health -- posted at: 9:43am CDT

Cindy Levering was appointed by the Secretary of Labor to the ERISA Advisory Council on Employee Welfare and Pension Benefit Plans effective 2016 as the representative of the Actuarial consulting profession.  Cindy and Andrea Sellars discuss the background, structure and activities of the Council as well as the opportunity and impact Actuaries have at the table. 

Direct download: Pension_Section_-_ERISA_Advisory_Council_with_C_Levering.mp3
Category:Pension -- posted at: 11:11am CDT

Grace Lattyak and Andrea Sellars have a discussion about the Real Deal Study, a look at retirement income adequacy at large companies.  This study by Aon Hewitt projects retirement income adequacy individually for more than two million employees and uses that data to form insights about the state of retirement income adequacy among employees of large companies.

 

Direct download: Pension_Section_-_Retirement_Income_Adequacy_with_G_Lattyak.mp3
Category:Pension -- posted at: 10:59am CDT

This podcast features Dave Dillon, FSA, MAAA interviewing Gayle Brekke, FSA, MAAA on the topic of Direct Primary Care, a topic which is also covered in her article in the May issue of Health Watch.  This podcast introduces the direct primary care model, and outlines how it can improve care coordination, ensure that chronic conditions are well-controlled, reduce health care spending and improve the doctor/patient relationship. 

 

Direct download: Health_Section_-_Direct_Primary_Care_with_G_Brekke.mp3
Category:Health -- posted at: 3:29pm CDT

This podcast features Dave Dillon, FSA, MAAA interviewing Sabrina Gibson, FSA, MAAA, and Jenny Gerstorff, FSA, MAAA on the topic of Medicaid encounter data, a topic which is also featured as the cover article of the latest edition of In the Public Interest. They discuss how various stakeholders collect, transfer, and use encounter data to understand healthcare benefits provided under managed Medicaid programs throughout the country.

Direct download: Health_Section_-_Medicaid_and_Encounter_Data_w_S_Gibson_and_J_Gerstorff.mp3
Category:Health -- posted at: 10:42am CDT

In this podcast, Dave Dillon, FSA, MAAA interviews Kristi Bohn, FSA, MAAA, EA, MSPA on a state regulators insight regarding rate reviews.

Direct download: Health_Section__Rate_Review_with_Kristie_Bohn.mp3
Category:Health -- posted at: 10:40am CDT